Hurricanes and the Bushes

As I read about Hurricane Charley, I wonder if it could influence who is elected president in November.

The facts: Florida, with its 27 electoral votes, is a key state in the too-close-to-call column for the presidential election. A third of Florida's population is in the path of what might be a very strong hurricane.

Partly/sometimes true: People have trouble separating Jeb Bush and George W. Bush.

A line of thinking that popped into my head: Even if the hurricane does severe damage but the state responds well afterwards by providing quick relief and supplies, then people will like Jeb and by association his brother and might vote for him (George W.) in the election.

It's improbable that things would happen like that, but....Jeb has already ordered a lot of people to evacuate--the right thing to do. He's declared a state of emergency, which by itself causes a lot of other things to happen like schools and government offices to close. He's mobilized the Florida National Guard. Law enforcement is on alert, the highways are moving as well as they can with all of the added vehicles, airports and private businesses have limited hours. Lots of things are controlled by local governments and carefully formulated hurricane and disaster plans, but if you're governor and things go well with a minimum of fatalities, injuries, and damage, then it would be easy to take credit. Could this be one of those events that people look back on and say, "Why didn't we guess how that would change things?"

An event like Bonnie (with winds of around 50 MPH and some rain) and Charley (a major storm) striking so close together (something like 12~24 hours apart) hasn't happened since 1906. With all of the development that has taken place since then and all of the rain they've had already this year.....yikes! The flooding could be quite bad, not to mention the damage to mobile homes.

I talked to Mom and Dad last night. Mom was watching Dad prepare for the storm: all of the normal stuff like putting the pool furniture, potted plants, and water hoses inside, but Dad was even climbing up the antenna to anchor it down. Charley is still predicted to hit Tampa Bay, and continues to strengthen. Mom will get the hurricane she's been waiting her whole life for! I wouldn't mind being there myself, actually.

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 249 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
... INTENSIFYING HURRICANE CHARLEY MAY BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE SUNCOAST TODAY...

... HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREA...

... THE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

... A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

... A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

CITRUS CHARLOTTE DE SOTO HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LEE LEVY MANATEE PASCO PINELLAS SARASOTA INCLUDING... THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER... CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND TAMPA BAY.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA:

HARDEE HIGHLANDS POLK SUMTER

... STORM LOCATION... AT 2 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 NORTH... 82.6 WEST... OR ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. CHARLEY WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH... AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH... AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES OUT OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 973 MB... 28.73 INCHES.

... STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY... THEN ACCELERATE... ALONG THE SUNCOAST... THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY.

A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE TO SOUTH OF WHERE CHARLEY MAKES LANDFALL. A STORM SURGE OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF WHERE THE CHARLEY MOVES ON SHORE AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO ONSHORE BEHIND THE STORM.

... WIND IMPACTS... CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY... WITH WINDS IN THE INNER EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER... NO MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES... CURRENT FORECAST DATA SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY EARLY SATURDAY.

... VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE... ... DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS POSSIBLE...

... STRUCTURAL DAMAGE... THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED NEAR WHERE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE... INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES... SIDING... GUTTERS... AS WELL AS BLOWN OUT WINDOWS.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS... ESPECIALLY TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF... AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. MUCH OF THE GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE... INJURY... AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

... NATURAL DAMAGE... ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP... AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CITRUS GROVES... INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES... MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY... THEN MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

IN RURAL LOCATIONS... SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL SURPASS BANK FULL FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS.

URBAN AREAS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AS RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AND THE STORM SURGE WILL LIMIT EVACUATION OF THE WATER.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO SWELL LONG AFTER THE STORM PASSES. PERSONS LIVING ALONG RIVERS SHOULD MONITOR EVENTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS DANGEROUS FLOOD. HEED ALL EVACUATION ORDERS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OR MILITARY PERSONNEL.